Fed Bullish on Economy, Investors Have Doubts

By Mark Essig
E-Commerce Times
08/11/04

The new report was consistent with Alan Greenspan's forecast last month that the current "soft patch" in the economy would be prelude to quicker growth. The accuracy of that prediction will depend heavily on oil prices, which have increased more than 30 percent since the start of the year and now stand above US$44. The Fed's outlook relies on expectations that oil prices will moderate.

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The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by a quarter point, to 1.5 percent, on Tuesday afternoon. That much was widely expected. The real news lay in the accompanying statement, in which the Fed strongly implied that it would continue to raise rates in coming months.
Although the report acknowledged that recent economic news indicates slowing job growth and productivity, it claimed that the economy "nevertheless appears poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion."

Interest rate hikes often prompt stock sell-offs, but the markets initially reacted to the Fed statement with enthusiasm. Standard & Poor's, Dow Jones and Nasdaq all showed gains Tuesday.
By Wednesday morning, however, investors appeared to have second thoughts. In morning trading, all three indexes were down. High oil prices, inflation, slow growth and the threat of terrorism appear to be weighing on investors, despite the Fed's reassurances yesterday.

In the statement, members of the Federal Open Market Committee downplayed worries about the recent economic slowdown and shifted attention to inflation. The Fed has a dual mandate -- to keep both inflation and unemployment in check. Raising interest rates can slow the rate of inflation, but it can also limit job growth.

After a bleak job report released by the Department of Labor on Friday, many economists expected that the Fed would raise rates this month and then delay further increases until after the November presidential election.
Given the concern about inflation expressed in yesterday's report, most economists now expect the Fed to raise the benchmark rate to 1.75 percent at its next meeting, on September 21, and continue rate hikes for the rest of the year.

Much Depends on Oil
According to the report, the slow pace of economic growth and job creation should be attributed to "the substantial rise in energy prices" and not taken as a sign that the economy is headed for trouble. The Fed expects strong growth for the rest of the year.

The new report was consistent with Chairman Alan Greenspan's statement last month, when he said that the current "soft patch" in the economy would be prelude to quicker growth.

The accuracy of the Fed's prediction will depend heavily on oil prices, which have increased more than 30 percent since the start of the year and now stand above US$44. The Fed's rosy outlook relies on its expectations that oil prices will moderate. If they don't, the economic outlook might sour.

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